Research

HER conducts innovative research on sustainability transformations in coupled human-environment-systems. A big part of the research concentrates on advancing our knowledge on risk and adaptation related to climate and environmental change, from an empirical and theoretical perspective. In doing so, the unit’s research covers three fields in particular:

Firstly, the unit develops and applies scientific methods to assess past, current and especially future trends in risk as they unfold at the interface of climate change hazards and changing human societies and infrastructures. Drawing on scenario techniques and dynamic assessment tools, HER particularly examines likely future trends in socio-economic exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity as societies undergo wider demographic, economic, cultural and political change. Analyzing the interplay between urbanization pathways and shifts in risk profiles is one of the unit’s specific areas of research, for example, drawing on participatory scenario techniques as well as urban growth modelling, Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling. The assessment therein includes extreme events (e.g. floods, cyclones, heat waves, droughts) as well as creeping hazards (e.g. sea level rise or salinization of water bodies). In doing so, the unit has a strong focus also rural-urban linkages.

Secondly, the unit develops, tests and applies methods to evaluate different options for risk reduction and adaptation and how they are negotiated within the wider risk governance in societies. Going beyond standard tools such as cost-benefit-analysis or environmental impact assessment, HER uses innovative and empirically-grounded multi-criteria tools to also capture and consider other important, yet often neglected, factors in decision making, including, for instance, social acceptance, political feasibility, ecological externalities or uncertainty. In doing so, HER is particularly interested in understanding the synergies, but also the rifts, between state and non-state action in adaptation processes and it promotes integrated governance solutions.

Thirdly, HER assesses when and how transformative change for risk reduction becomes necessary and how it can be fostered pro-actively. Key dimensions covered in this research include transformations in urban and spatial planning regulations, crises contingencies, insurance markets or societal responsibilities for risk prevention.

The unit’s projects include: