Inhaltsbereich
Forschungsprojekte
FloodAdaptVN: Integrating Ecosystem-based Approaches into Flood Risk Management for Adaptive and Sustainable Urban Development in Central Viet Nam
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Fachgebiet: Geographische Entwicklungsforschung, Geographische Gesellschaft-Umwelt-Forschung, Regionale Geographie, Stadtgeographie Gefördert durch: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Projektleitung: Prof. Dr. Matthias Garschagen, Dr. Andrea Reimuth Projektwissenschaftler: , , Dr. Olabisi Obaitor, Dr. Andrea Reimuth Laufzeit: 04/2021 - 03/2025 |
Overview
Funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), this project is a collaboration between LMU HER, the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen., the IZES GmbH, geomer GmbH, and the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII). The international partners include the Huế University - International School (HUIS), the Huế University of Sciences (HUSC), the Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DONRE) of the Thua Thien Huế Province, the Thua Thien Hue Provincial Commanding Committee of Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, Search and Rescue (CCNDPC/SR) and the Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change (SIHYMECC) at the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE).
The objective of FloodAdaptVN is to reduce current and future flood risks through the implementation of targeted ecosystem-based adaptation strategies into the flood risk management frameworks in Central Vietnam. More specifically, the aims of FloodAdaptVN are to
1) understand and assess the drivers, spatial patterns
(incl. hotspots), and dynamics of present-day
and future flood risks (2030, 2050, 2100),
2) investigate entry points for and barriers towards the implementation of disaster risk reduction (DRR), risk transfer (i.e. insurance) and adaptation solutions (with a strong focus on ecosystem-based approaches),
3) co-develop a decision support tool for risk-informed
(spatial) planning and prioritizing among
different DRR, risk transfer and adaptation measures and,
4) foster capacity development.
Focus area is the catchment of the Perfume River in the Thua Thien Hue Province, Viet Nam, which also includes the city of Hue.
During a Definition phase (08/2019-03/2021), the modular FloodAdaptVN approach was developed and successfully tested in pilot applications. The Research and Development phase is now carried out with the following foci: A sophisticated and transferable modelling framework adapted to local conditions will assess the present-day flood risks and possible future flood risk under Representative Concentration (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Existing and planned DRR, risk transfer and adaptation measures, as well as potential innovative measures will be identified and evaluated against a multi-criteria catalogue, including impact reduction, protection targets, social acceptance, cost-benefit, potential mal-adaptive consequences as well as synergies and trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets. The modular approach will be made available in a designated Flood Information System (FRAME).
To ensure that FloodAdaptVN produces policy-relevant outcomes, strengthens existing and builds new capacities in the region, the key research questions, the overall methodological approach as well as the type and format of the proposed outcomes and outputs will continue to be co-developed and co-produced in close collaboration with relevant local stakeholders and Vietnamese scientific partners. General information of the project is available at https://floodadapt.eoc.dlr.de/index.html
LMU contributions
Within the FloodAdaptVN project, LMU is leading the subproject “Integrated risk trends”. This work package is aimed to develop and evaluate of future flood risk scenarios for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100. The scenarios will be downscaled from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to cover short-term planning horizons but also long-term climate-driven scenarios. Based on this approach climate change effects but also future demographic and economic developments will be assessed in terms of regional flood risk. In this way, the different future degrees of exposition and vulnerability of the study region can be determined and evaluated.
In a first step LMU develops an integrateive scenario-framework, which will serve as a base for the different modelling strings of FloodAdaptVN. This framework will be also used for the assessment of exposition and vulnerability scenarios. For this purpose, modelling tools as the urban growth model SLEUTH will be applied and further developed in order to project the different developments in future urbanization processes and socio-economic conditions. Qualitative scenarios for the vulnerability of population, critical infrastructure, and the key sectors will be developed and quantified using statistical modelling tools, agent based modeling and Bayesian network modeling. These scenarios will be merged with the flood hazard scenarios, developed within the FloodAdaptVN project. The obtained integrative risk scenarios will serve as a base for the analysis of adaptation options and the decision support system.
LMU will further contribute to the capacity development and knowledge transfer to Vietnam. This includes exchange programs, bilateral PhD theses, research visits, external scholarships, short visits but also the offer of training courses provided by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce.